Copper Market Outlook: Near-Term Balance, Long-Term Deficit Risk

Copper sits at the centre of the energy transition. Every power line, transformer, electric motor and charging point relies on it, and few substitutes match its conductivity at scale. Yet the market today sends a mixed signal: a modest near-term refined surplus alongside a growing consensus that long-term mine supply will struggle to keep pace with demand.

Where the market stands in 2026

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG), meeting in Lisbon in October 2026, expects the global refined copper market to post a surplus of about 104,000 tonnes in 2026, widening to around 368,000 tonnes in 2027. That marks a clear shift from October 2025, when the group had forecast a 2026 deficit of 150,000 tonnes before revising to a surplus in April 2026.

The revisions reflect both sides of the balance. ICSG trimmed its 2026 world mine production growth forecast to 1.3% (from 1.6% in April), citing weaker output in Chile, China and Indonesia and ongoing constraints at major operations affected by incidents in 2025. Refined production is expected to grow only 0.4% in 2026, as limited concentrate availability holds back primary electrolytic output, while apparent refined usage is projected to rise about 1.5%.

In 2027, ICSG anticipates mine growth of about 3.1%, refined output growth of 3.4% (supported by new smelting and refining capacity in Indonesia, India and the EU) and usage growth of 2.5%. China accounts for around 59% of world refined copper usage, so its industrial cycle remains the single most important swing factor.

The structural supply problem

A near-term refined surplus does not resolve the longer-term question. The International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 finds that, based on announced projects, expected mined copper supply falls around 30% short of projected demand by 2035 under its Stated Policies Scenario. The IEA points to declining ore grades, rising capital costs, a sharp slowdown in new discoveries and long development lead times.

The concentration of processing also matters: the IEA estimates the top three refining countries held about 59% of refined copper output in 2024, a share it expects to stay near 60% through 2040.

Demand drivers: grids first, then vehicles

According to the IEA, the rapid expansion of grid investment in China was the single largest contributor to copper demand growth over 2023-2024, when global demand rose about 3% in 2024. Looking ahead, the IEA projects total copper demand to climb from 26.7 Mt in 2024 to 31.3 Mt in 2030 and 34.1 Mt in 2040. Clean-energy technologies (grids, renewables, EVs and storage) account for most of that increase, rising from about 7.7 Mt to 12.2 Mt.

Secondary supply is an important release valve. The IEA expects recycled copper and reuse to grow from about 4.4 Mt in 2024 to 8.7 Mt by 2040, and ICSG notes secondary refined output growth of about 4.7% in its outlook. Even so, primary mine supply will still need to cover the bulk of requirements.

What this means for buyers

For industrial buyers, the picture argues for balance. Near-term availability of refined metal appears adequate, but concentrate tightness, disruption risk and the long-run supply gap suggest that diversified sourcing, clear specifications and disciplined contract structures will remain valuable. Market participants should also watch trade-flow shifts and geopolitical risk, which ICSG flags as factors that could change balances quickly.